Projections show no chance of overfishing menhaden, but recreational advocates apply a different standard to overfished striped bass
WASHINGTON, DC / ACCESS Newswire / November 2, 2026 / The latest misleading soundbite from what is obviously a coordinated, multi-organization effort involving the Forage Fish Campaign is that the menhaden quota set last year had no chance of “meeting the ecosystem target.”
Throughout October, the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership (TRCP), the American Saltwater Guides Association, and the Forage Fish Campaign have promoted versions of this message.
TRCP describes a “100% probability of exceeding the ecosystem-based fishing mortality target.” The Forage Fish Campaign says in a dramatic Instagram post that the quota had a “0% chance of meeting the ecosystem target.” Campaign executive director Whit Fosburgh makes the same argument in his October 26 post.
The Instagram video features Mike Waine of the American Sportfishing Association (ASA), who says that passing the motion would mean the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s (ASMFC) Menhaden Management Board had “essentially abandoned ecosystem-based fisheries management.” It then pans across commissioners voting for the motion, shows it passing 12-6, and says the governors of nine states were responsible for “protecting industrial fishing.” It closes: “Warned, ignored, again.”
What the soundbite leaves out is the other finding in the same projections: a 0% projected probability of overfishing in 2026 under the adopted quota. The ASMFC’s projection table puts both results side by side. And Atlantic menhaden’s ecological reference points already account for predator needs. Striped bass is the focal predator, but the ASMFC also included osprey in the full ecosystem model.
In everyday English, missing a target sounds like failure. In fisheries management, the fishing mortality target is a conservative objective below the overfishing threshold. Fishing can safely exceed the target while remaining below that threshold. Exceeding the more conservative target does not establish overfishing or ecological damage, nor does it require corrective management action. The ASMFC explains the distinction.
Striped bass is currently being managed in an analogous manner. The 2024 striped bass assessment estimated fishing mortality in 2023 at 0.18-above its target of 0.17, but below its overfishing threshold of 0.21. This is the same as the latest menhaden assessment. In both species fishing mortality is above the target and below the threshold. Although the two species use different reference point systems, both demonstrate that exceeding the target does not mean overfishing is occurring.
However, the difference between menhaden and striped bass is the condition of the populations. Menhaden is not overfished, and overfishing is not occurring. Striped bass fishing mortality was at or above the overfishing threshold in 13 of the 15 years from 2003-2017, and the population remains overfished and under a rebuilding program. Overfishing of striped bass was not ended until 2023. The striped bass assessment and the menhaden assessment thus show the same relationship to their respective targets and thresholds, but very different histories and population conditions.
The latest assessment’s historical estimates show that overfishing of Atlantic menhaden did not occur from 2008 through 2023, the last year assessed. (A 2012 assessment mistakenly calculated that menhaden was experiencing overfishing, but the ASMFC’s 2015 benchmark assessment corrected that finding.) Equally, if not more, important, the Menhaden Technical Committee’s projections show that the menhaden stock is above its target abundance level and will stay at that high level even at current harvest levels.
Yet last year, the Striped Bass Board rejected a proposed 12% reduction in removals. The ASMFC’s projections indicated the reduction would increase the probability of rebuilding striped bass by 2029 from 30% to 50%. The Board cited economic consequences, low fishing mortality in 2024 and preliminary indications of lower catch in 2025. The Menhaden Board, meanwhile, reduced the quota for a fishery that was not experiencing overfishing by 20%.
ASA praised the striped bass decision, with Waine saying it avoided “significant economic harm” from proposed closures. The association pointed to lower striped bass fishing mortality and criticized the menhaden reduction as inadequate. Yet striped bass remained overfished, and the rejected reduction was intended to improve its chance of rebuilding. ASA said the Board voted to maintain status quo measures until the next benchmark assessment, expected in 2027. Menhaden crews, plant workers, union families and the communities that depend on them deserve the same consideration.
Now TRCP is demanding another 39% cut to the menhaden quota. Yet the Striped Bass Board’s work group’s recommendation memo for its November meeting contains no proposed reduction comparable to the 12% cut it rejected last year.
Where is TRCP’s outrage? Why isn’t it demanding that the Striped Bass Board reconsider that reduction? If rebuilding striped bass is urgent enough to demand deeper cuts to a menhaden fishery that is not overfished, why isn’t TRCP applying the same pressure to the fishery that directly catches striped bass?
The ASMFC itself says that ending all menhaden fishing would not, by itself, rebuild striped bass. Repeating an alarming statistic about the menhaden target does not change that finding-or justify applying different standards to the two fisheries.
Sources
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2021). Addendum VI to Amendment 6, section 2.2.1 (PDF p. 3). “Total F has been at or above the threshold in 13 of the last 15 years of the assessment (2003-2017).”
American Saltwater Guides Association. (2026, October). Official ASGA Atlantic menhaden press release.
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2015, February). Atlantic menhaden benchmark assessment finds resource not overfished and overfishing not occurring.
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2017, August). Atlantic menhaden stock assessment update finds resource not overfished and overfishing not occurring.
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2024). 2024 Atlantic striped bass stock assessment update report (executive summary, PDF p. 3).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025). 2025 Atlantic menhaden stock assessment update (PDF p. 19).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025). Atlantic menhaden FAQ (osprey, PDF p. 8).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025). Atlantic menhaden FAQ (striped bass rebuilding, PDF p. 7).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025). Atlantic menhaden FAQ (target and threshold, PDF p. 3).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025, October). 2025 Atlantic menhaden stock assessment update (projection tables, PDF p. 44).
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2025, October). ASMFC Atlantic Striped Bass Board approves Addendum III without reductions in fishery removals [Press release].
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2026). 2026 annual meeting: November 9-12 [Published agenda].
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. (2026, October 23). Steering Committee memorandum M26-90: Next steps for work group (PDF p. 23).
Forage Fish Campaign. (n.d.). Video featuring Mike Waine and an ASMFC menhaden vote [Instagram reel].
Fosburgh, W. (2026, October 26). The Bait Line: Menhaden, ecosystem overfishing, and ecosystem management. Forage Fish Campaign.
Shane, R. (2025, October 30). Mixed results from 2025 ASMFC annual meeting. American Sportfishing Association.
Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries. (2025). Striped bass frequently asked questions.
Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership. (2026, October 21). Much at stake for Atlantic menhaden this November.
About the American Small Pelagics Network
The American Small Pelagics Network represents fishermen, processors, suppliers, and coastal communities connected to fisheries such as menhaden, mackerel, herring, squid, and butterfish. ASPN advocates for sustainable fisheries management that supports critical fish species, while maintaining economic opportunities for fishermen and fishing communities.
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SOURCE: American Small Pelagics Network
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